How to Trade Prediction Markets

A disciplined framework for tailing proven Polymarket wallets: rank them with the Sharp Score, alert on their entries, size with rules, and read the flow as intelligence, not a signal to copy blind.

Around 70 percent of active traders finish behind. Here is how to find the reliable losers, take the other side of their live positions, and build the risk controls that keep a fade edge alive.

Lock cross-exchange spreads between Polymarket and Kalshi. How buying YES on one venue and NO on the other for under a dollar works, the fee and resolution-criteria traps that quietly eat the edge, and how to route every leg to the best price.

When several high-score sharp traders independently converge on one side of a market, the Smart Gap shows you where conviction is strongest. Here is how to read it, confirm it, size it, and know when it breaks.

Read the fresh-wallet, concentrated, oversized signature that informed capital leaves before a headline prints, verify it on-chain, and position with discipline.

Temperature markets are one of the few prediction markets with a real numerical model behind them. Here is how to price them, find the edge, and trade it with discipline.

A prediction market strategy for curating a small shortlist of wallets you actually understand, sizing them to your own risk, and pruning the cold ones. Why five wallets you know beat fifty on a leaderboard.

The traders who last on Polymarket and Kalshi are rarely the ones with the sharpest reads. They are the ones who sized correctly, controlled variance, and never chased a loss. Here is how to build that discipline and how to measure it.